Correct DNA-Genealogy and glottochronology

1. DNA-Genealogy

Last years the DNA-Genealogy basing studying of Y-chromosomes of the person actively develops. To the most authoritative scientist in this area began A.A.Klyosov [1]. Klyosov the criterion is developed, allowing defining presence of one or several general ancestors in sample gaplotype. It is based on the natural logarithm of the attitude of number gaplotype in all samples and base gaplotype (ancestors, modal, identical gaplotype in sample). The technique describing dynamics of mutations in gaplotype is offered, and allowing to define time distances up to the general ancestor, being based on a share base (ancestors) gaplotype in sample or its separate genealogic lines (without calculation of mutations in gaplotypes). If the criterion shows, that in sample it is more than one genealogic line (more than one general ancestor) the tree gaplotype is under construction, and the analysis of lines (branches of a tree) is made separately. Klyosov calibration of average speeds of mutations for 6-, 9-, 10-12-, 25-, 37 - and 67-markers gaplotype is lead. Technique Klyosov is shown on numerous examples.

Basic equation Klyosov follows from the assumption, that if the genealogic tree is symmetric, transition base gaplotype in mutation should pass according to the equation kinetic the first order: mutation

ln (B/A) = KT (1),

Where In is a total gaplotype in the list, And - number kept base gaplotype, K - average speed (frequency) of a mutation (0.0096 on gaplotype on generation for six markers gaplotype), T - number of generations up to the general ancestor, ln - the natural logarithm.

Up to Klyosov in DNA-Genealogy nobody applied this formula, therefore colleagues of the scientist named this Klyosov’s formula. For the analysis of the data in DNA-Genealogy use also linear model, probability model and model in view of returnable mutations.

In simple cases is use linear model. She is applicable for calculations at rather small number of generations, or (that on sense the same) small number of mutations in base (ancestors) gaplotype. In this case the formula for calculation of time past from general for all sample of an ancestor, is simple:

T = n/N/K (2),

Where T - time up to the general ancestor, in generations,
n - quantity of mutations in all N gaplotype samples,
K - the average speed (frequency) of mutations expressed among mutations on a marker on generation.

In opinion Klyosov, calculations show, that this formula is applicable without corrective action on returnable mutations only up to 0.046 mutations on a marker on generation (after recalculation for speed of a mutation of 0.002 mutations on a marker on generation), or up to 23 generations (575 years). Actually, we believe, that the linear formula is applicable only till 10-15 generations or quantity of mutations in the compared pair less than 6.

Because of uncertain linear model, scientists had to apply frequently a principle of " skilful hands », the citation [1]:

« For a range of time from 600 till 925 years up to the general ancestor (24 up to 37 generations) the number of considered generations should be increased by one. From 38 generations (950 years) it is necessary to add two generations. From 66 generations (1,650) 5 generations increase already, from 92 generations (2,300) 10 generations increase already, from 132 generations (3,300 years) 20 generations increase, from 202 generations (5,050 years) 50 generations increase, and from 274 generations (6,850 years) 100 generations increase, that is actual time up to the general ancestor grows by third (more precisely, on 36 %). At 560 generations (14 thousand years) actual time up to the general ancestor is doubled, and makes actually 28 thousand years. In other words, actual average speed of mutations on such time interval becomes equal 0.001 mutations on a marker on generation. The some people use in calculations « population speed of mutations » 0.00069 on a marker on generation, not suspecting, that she approaches for calculations only at time up to the general ancestor, equal 64 thousand years. It occurs at 1.76 mutations on a marker ».

A.A.Klyosov understands, that the formula has logarithmic character, but to describe function of the logarithm it has failed, therefore it was necessary to think out correction factors. Reliability of these factors and amendments defines today itself Klyosov, relying on conscience of the scientist. The set of people in a rank of devoted masters of DNA-Genealogy which operate any more figures, and public opinion and a policy has appeared. Poorly it or is not good, not to us to judge.

The most surprising in correction factors Klyosov that they unbend a logarithmic curve in the opposite party from natural position. Actually factors should reduce quantity of generations, instead of increase their number. We shall prove this phenomenon below.

For this reason results of researches of DNA-Genealogy tend to not converge to exact decisions. To smoothing mistakes in addition began to apply probability model and model in view of returnable mutations with different clauses.

In opinion Klyosov, the citation [1]:

« Probability the model becomes unsuitable after approximately 10 thousand years up to the general ancestor as starts to exaggerate much more this time, namely, on 20 % after 10 thousand years. At 14,500 up to an ancestor (580 generations) on linear model it appears 29,800 for model in view of return mutations, but is overestimated up to more than 100 thousand years on model probability, that is simple non realistic ».

« Numerical values of size of generations up to the general ancestor of sample pay off under the special program or are under special tables which will be published in the subsequent releases of the Bulletin ».

For some years the various research device with which help Genealogists began to process genetic samples on different peoples, to tribes both separate surnames and sorts is created. The DNA-Genealogy has acquired with tables, diagrams, trees, magazines, conferences and other attributes of a high science.

With the help of formula of Klyosov and his followers have created the virtual world of an origin of mankind in which peoples and gaplogroups have appeared tens, and even hundred thousand years ago. DNA-Genealogist easy argue on 40 thousand years of existence of Slavic tribes, confirm a hypothesis of an origin of mankind from Adam in Africa and transition of people through Palestine to Asia Minor, there from to Europe, the Far East, Southeast Asia, Northern America, Australia and islands of Pacific ocean. Calculations by Klyosov have proved an antiquity of an origin of Jewish people and a youth of other populations. General, works of the scientist had been again authorized a traditional history of mankind. Optimists and atheists from a science and policies have received an invaluable gift from hypotheses Klyosov – the mankind is very old and is independent, without intervention of divine force has created itself and the modern person. To put it briefly is the person tsar of the nature and the false law of transition of quantity in quality.

In parallel A.A.Klyosov has carried in down and ashes Barrow hypothesis of an origin of the mankind, put forward by Maria Gimbutas [2-5]. She asserts, that the mankind very youngling and has appeared in source of Volga, that first peoples were Finno-Ugric and Turkic tribes. From the Volga region all modern human civilization was distributed. In opinion of Maria Gimbutas the mankind has arisen 5500-5600 years ago. Klyosov in clause [6] has denied postulates Borrow of hypothesis, being based only on own calculations of an antiquity of peoples and gaplogroup, and also natural love to Slavic tribes.

However Maria Gimbutas's idea has completely proved to be true researches of the author on reconstruction of a history of the Sort of Russia and all mankind, executed in the book [7]. Therefore today dispute between hypotheses accepts not only scientific, but also political character. In fact other practical application of hypothesis Klyosov became a substantiation of an antiquity and cleanliness of relationship in princely and royal dynasties. In these researches aspects of calculation of speed of mutations, the analysis of quantity of mutations and calculation of time of a life of the general ancestor became important at comparison various gaplotype, presumably belonging to one sort. The voluntarism in DNA-Genealogy has led to discredit of a young science.

The basic motivation of the author at a spelling of the given work became an idea, that formulas and techniques Klyosov do not work in nonlinear areas (at an antiquity of ancestors more than 500 years), that induces scientists to apply methods of adjustment of results under a stereotype certain developed and thrust from the outside.

The main problem of Klyosov’s formula will be, that anybody precisely does not know value of parameter And - number kept base gaplotype. When Klyosov investigated gaplotype on 6 or 12 markers there were combinations completely conterminous digital values. These gaplotypes appeared base and on their parity to the general number gaplotype estimations and calculations were carried out. So figures of time of existence of the general ancestor at groups of people in tens thousand years ago have appeared. With development of technology of DNA-Testing, after data acquisition already on 25, 37 and 67 markers, all previous calculations began to go to pieces. Appeared, that does not exist kept base gaplotype.

Not clear, as this simple idea has not occurred to researchers earlier. As a result of natural evolution in each generation there are mutations in genes, therefore physically cannot exist base gaplotypes presently, that as all gaplotypes mutation. Hence, naming a part gaplotype in researched sample base, scientists dissembled and allowed an occasion to use a principle of “ skilful hands “, selecting for the necessary result correct number base gaplotype. The natural conclusion arises, that the certain number kept base gaplotype simply does not exist, and it always remains uncertain. It is logical to assume, that there is only one ancestor in sample, but on one base gaplotype it is impossible to calculate anything, in fact then the result will be defined by quantity gaplotype in sample. Formation of trees and branches in sample also does not eliminate a problem.

Conclusion: formula of Klyosov gives true values only in cases when the quantity base gaplotype or primogenitors of a patrimonial tree is precisely known, and that with clauses - in fact we require authentic Genealogy of a sort. No mass use of Klyosov’s formula in DNA-Genealogy can be, as she will always yield false results that will provoke a juggling of results.

There is only one absolute example when Klyosov’s formula will give true figures, according to laws kinetic the first order. Absolute consists in definition of an antiquity of all modern mankind, in fact we believe, that all people have taken place from one man with bible name Adam or Tarh on Vedas. The forefather can be named different names, but we shall use standard - Adam.

Let's time lives of the first of the man, using Klyosov’s formula and the initial data: today in the world there lives approximately 3.5 billion man (the number gaplotype), base gaplotype is gaplotype Adam, and speeds of mutations gaplotype on generation on different number of markers we shall take from work [1].

T1 = ln (3500000000/1)/K = 22.0/K

Time T we shall transfer within (one generation of 25 years). We shall make the table with use of various values K for 6-, 12-, 25-, 37-, 67-and 188-markers gaplotype. Speed of mutations on gaplotype will make accordingly 0.0088, 0.022, 0.046, 0.09, 0.145 and 0.363. Speed of mutations for 188-markers gaplotype is extrapolated by us from values Klyosov in the speeds for smaller number of markers (37 and 67) as itself Klyosov yet has not published this parameter. We shall add that in gaplotype the person there are only 188 markers, this maximal value and another does not happen. Clearly, that the more number of markers, the more precisely result - date of occurrence Adam.

To the table we shall in addition bring in settlement values of time T of occurrence of mankind from 20 primogenitors, meaning, that 20 means number existing today gaplogroup. For interest we shall add probable time of occurrence of mankind, for example, from 200 forefathers.

T20 = ln (175000000/1)/K = 19.0/K

T200 = ln (17500000/1)/K = 16.7/K

In the last column to the table we shall place the corresponding results received in the settlement way under the formula of the author for 67-and 188-markers gaplotype. The table shows in years to time of birth Adam, 20 and 200 forefathers. Dates is we shall approximate to hundreds years. We shall name our table – Table of crash of Klyosov’s formula.

Knowingly we gave the table such name. In fact on Klyosov at calculations on 188 markers the mankind has taken place at all 62500 years ago and at all 22700 years ago, and only 1200-1400 years ago - in days of Rurik and the Byzantium Emperors. Such result is defined by the logarithmic formula and structure Y-DNK of the person - in it of 188 markers, instead of 6 or 12, therefore to do calculations of a birth of the general ancestor on 6 or 12 markers it is simply incorrect. Hence, all reasoning on an antiquity of a human civilization on Klyosov appeared a mistake of the scientists, hastened to give out desirable for valid.

On the contrary, results of author's calculations show full concurrence with Barrow Maria Gimbutas's hypothesis and own reconstruction of the author. Some researchers will declare – the author like has adjusted results to the theories, but we shall not do hasty conclusions.

We offer the following formula of calculation of time of a life of the general ancestor for groups of people, being based on quantity of mutations in Y-DNA to a chromosome in compared sample gaplotype. With pleasure we shall name this formula – Kubarev’s formula:

T = n/N/K/ln(n/N) (3) or n/N/ln(n/N) = KT (4),

Where T – time up to the general ancestor in generations, n – quantity of mutations in all N gaplotype samples, K – the average speed (frequency) of mutations expressed among mutations on a marker on generation, ln – the natural logarithm.

Kubarev’s formula can be applied, if n/N> e. She will work and with reduction of the attitude n/N to e, but in this case function gets the deformed kind therefore in this area it is necessary to do calculations under the known formula (2) linear models:

T = n/N/K (2).

It is logical to assume, that formulas Klyosov and Kubarev will coincide in limiting values of parameters when we shall estimate time of occurrence of all mankind:

ln (N/A) = n/N/ln (n/N) = KT (5) or ln (N/A) = n/N/ln (n/N) (6),

Where N = B = 3500000000, A = 1.

In this case we can define average speed of mutations K188 on 188 markers, in fact according to hypotheses Gimbutas and Kubarev, the mankind has appeared 5500-5600 years or 220-224 generations back, thus we do not know total of mutations at all mankind, therefore in the beginning we shall define speed K188 under Klyosov’s formula:

K188 = ln (3500000000)/220 = 22.0/220 = 0.10

Now we can define and average quantity of mutations in the genes of the modern person which has collected from the moment of birth Adam:

N = KTNln (n/N) = 0.10×220×1×ln (102/1) = 102.

After reduction N with 3500000000 people up to one person, we have received average quantity of mutations for 5500 years on each inhabitant of the Earth – 102 pieces or 0.463 mutations on generation.

It is obvious, that in time intervals between 5500 and 0 years, formulas Klyosov and Kubarev will yield different results. Discrepancies are caused by that in the first case we never know quantity base gaplotype, this number becomes uncertain. On the contrary, Kubarev’s formula (3-4) will always give exact result as we a priori know quantity of mutations n in researched sample N. At small time ranges (till 500 years) formula of Kubarev will become simpler up to linear model of the formula (2).

Let's check up reliability of the received results theoretically and on known examples from works [1,8].

Let's define, how behave function of quantity of single-step mutations on a marker depending on number of markers and speed (frequency) of mutations on a marker on generation in samples gaplotype. We had an impression that working DNA-Genealogist and scientists do not represent, as these functions look depending on quantity of researched markers in Y-DNA to a chromosome. To us it is clear, that they not linear as assume Klyosov [1] and his colleagues.

Function of quantity of single-step mutations on a marker depending on number of markers looks, as function of distribution of probability of loss of mutations from 1 marker and up to 188 markers. As a whole, she begins with zero, has a maximum in area 25-28 markers, then logarithm decreases up to zero at approach 188 marker. The first part of function on 6-12 markers has almost linear character, and on the second part after a maximum she promptly decreases. The curve has complex structure - local maxima in areas 13, 21, 30-36 and 55 markers are observed. After 60 markers function lays very close to zero. Actually curve behaves as the wave function pulsing around of some average value. The wave promptly fades after 55 markers.

In figure No. 1 we have represented a kind of function of total of single-step mutations in comparison with base gaplotype, on each marker of a Y-chromosome by the example of DNA-Tests 22 gaplotype of Rurikovich on 67 markers, researched by the author in work [8]. For presentation on the schedule the sums of all single-step mutations 22 gaplotypes on each marker are deduced. With 68 on 188 markers we accept values of mutations equal to zero in connection with absence of statistics.

Speed of mutations is defined by integral of values of quantity of single-step mutations on each marker from 1 up to 188 that is the sum of these parameters. Speeds of mutations on 6, 12, 17 or 25 markers will far defend from absolute speed of mutations on 188 parameters therefore they cannot be used in calculations of an origin of an ancestor. However already on 37 and 67 markers speed of mutations comes nearer to full integral. It is natural, that the estimation of speed on all gives 188 markers the greatest accuracy, but this speed is approximately equal to speed on 67 markers (distinction for some percent) and exceeds speed of mutations on 37 markers approximately for 10 percent.

K =

b
∫ f (n) dn (7),
a

Where K - speed of mutations, n – quantity of mutations, a and b – the bottom and top border of limit of markers, for example, from 1 up to 188.

In figure No. 2 we have constructed a curve of speed (frequency) of mutations on generation (generation), depending on quantity of markers from 1 up to 188 in a Y-chromosome. On data Klyosov of [1] speeds of mutations for 6-(0.0088), 9-(0.018), 12-(0.022), 17-(0.034), 25-(0.046) and 37-markers (0.09), and also 67-(0.10) and to 188-markers (0.101) according to the author (is (see lower). Values of speeds of mutations on the schedule are increased a hundred times.

The schedule of function has a strongly pronounced logarithmic component where speed of mutations after 50-55 markers aspires to some absolute value equal 0.101 on 188 markers. Speed of mutations after 67 markers down to 188 markers changes within the limits of pair percent. Such kind of function does not surprise, in fact in Figure No. 1 we have understood, that the probability of mutations after 50-55 markers aspires to zero. While it only a hypothesis which can prove to be true experimental data in the near future. Now we can prove fidelity of our assumptions only on characteristic examples.

Let's note, that other researchers of speed of mutations, for example Chandler [8], give figure, sometimes on the order it is less, than at Klyosov. We shall result Chandler's data and Klyosov’s:

12-markers - 0.0019±0.0003
25-markers - 0.0028±0.0004 Chandler [8]
37-markers - 0.0049±0.0007

12-markers - 0.0088
25-markers - 0.045 Klyosov [1]
37-markers - 0.09

In our opinion, Chandler's data reflect the form of a curve speed of mutations - quantity of markers in our figure No. 2, than at Klyosov more precisely. Though speeds of Chandler get on a direct line from zero till absolute speed on 188 markers that also do not correspond to the validity. Clearly, Klyosov has spent a lot of time for alignment of the results under logarithmic character of this function. Therefore for cleanliness of experiment in our calculations we shall use speeds of mutations on Klyosov that there was an opportunity to compare results.

Above we have defined absolute speed of mutations K188=0.101, proceeding from our hypothesis about quantity of generations 220 from the moment of occurrence of first person Adam. In our opinion speed of mutations K67=0.099-0.10, that on one - two percent less absolute. We shall remind, that this assumption is based on Borrow Maria Gimbutas's hypothesis [2-5] and the reconstruction of a history of mankind executed by the author [7].

Let's notice, that the designed figure of absolute speed of mutations 0.10 is not completely exact as, in opinion of the author, about 1250 B.C. there was a Flood described in the Bible and other mythological sources.

For this reason 3250 years ago the most part of mankind has been destroyed by huge waves of a tsunami and other amazing factors of a catastrophic turn of the Earth in space concerning a plane ecliptic. The tragedy has broken systematic and symmetric (in sense of a patrimonial tree) growth of the population of a planet. Hence, real figures K188 and K67 will be a little bit higher, the absolute values designed by us.

Let's calculate speed of mutations on generation for an example from work Klyosov [1] under formula of Kubarev. We shall take a known sort the Mc Donald and their data on 67-markers gaplotype. In total in the list 26 gaplotype in which there are 98 mutations, or 3.77 mutations on gaplotype. In opinion Klyosov on the average on 67-markers gaplotype there are 0.145 mutations on generation, recognizing that the general ancestor the Mc Donald lived 26 generations back. This value K67=0.145 became dogmatic calibration speed for anyone 67-markers gaplotype in works on DNA-Genealogy. At us it turns out:

K67 = 98/26/26/ln (98/26) = 0.109 or K67 = 0.109.

Our speed differs from value Klyosov on 33 %. We believe, that for calculations on 67 markers, in a time range from 0 till 3250 years, it is necessary to apply speed of mutations K67=0.105. This is average value between absolute 0.10 and calibration speed in 0.109 speeds. This size of speed of mutations with accuracy can be used some percent and for specified absolute value K188=0.105.

In works Klyosov avoids to estimate time of a life of peoples or separate surnames on 67 markers as the result can discourage the researcher. Therefore except for the Mc Donald to us to compare there is nothing. For presentation of work of our formula and calculations Klyosov [1] we can estimate time of occurrence of the general ancestors for Slavs and Hindus on 25 markers, time of occurrence of people for Pyrenees on 19 both 25 markers and distribution to Europe of Germans on 37 markers. We shall in addition estimate results of research Rurikovich on 67 markers, executed in work of the author [8].

1. Is present 44 gaplotype from the Post Soviet territory at which 326 mutations in 25 markers are revealed. On Klyosov time of occurrence of the general ancestor 4800 years ago. We shall check up:

T = 326/44/0.046 = 161.

Klyosov asserts, that is true not 161, but 193 generations, therefore Slavs have arisen 4825±300 years back. The difference 193/161=1.2 (20 %) has arisen like because of returnable mutations.

We use our formula, where K25=0.046 [1]:

T = 326/44/0.046/ln (326/44) = 81.

Hence, the general ancestor of Slavs in researched group of the Post Soviet space has appeared 2025 years ago, instead of 4825 years ago.

Indian R1a1 gaplotypes (the Indian Slavs) contain 91 mutations in 15 gaplotype.

T = 91/15/0.046 = 132.

However at Klyosov it is 152 generations or 3,800±200 years up to the general ancestor, where is 15 % of an increase because of returnable mutations.

We use our formula, where K25=0.046 [1]:

T = 91/15/0.046/ln (91/15) = 73.

Hence, the general ancestor of the Indian Slavs in researched group has appeared 1825 years ago, instead of 3800 years ago. Actually, any data on civilized activity of Slavs 3800-4800 years ago in territory of Russia does not exist.

In any case leaves, that Slavs in Russia have appeared before India, but they came in these regions not from Russia as there for a long time lived and prospered Bulgarian peoples – Finno-Ugorian and Turkish. So Slavs whence have undertaken?

Just from the beginning of our era and till IV century tribes of Jujanians and Syanbinian (elite of Jujans) which lived in the Inner Mongolia and northern China have amplified. Then Jujanians have been expelled from the familiar spots and have got on territory of modern Russia, Afghanistan and to India where just since IV century corrected Eftalitas or White Hun. Therefore Pushtunian (gaplogroup R1a1, Slavs on 46 %) it is descendants Eftalitas and Jujanians. Jujanians from the Inner Mongolia in the religious plan were Tanrganians.

2. Spain - 750 Iberian (18 territories of Spain) gaplotype have 2796 mutations. On Klyosov [1] it leads to that the general ancestor of all 750 gaplotype veins 3625 years ago. In the same place with use 25-markers gaplotype Basques it has been found, that their general ancestor lived 3675 years ago. Concurrence on Klyosov practically is full.

We use our formula, where K19=0.0285:

T = 2796/750/0.0285/ln (2796/750) = 99.

Hence, the general ancestors of Basques have appeared on Pyrenees 2500 years ago, i.e. about 500 years up to AD that corresponds to time of colonization of Iberian Peninsula Carthage’s. Earlier in this region nobody lived.

Let's check up our results on 25-markers gaplotype of Basques. 17 gaplotype contain 100 mutations.

We use our formula, where K25=0.046 [1]:

T = 100/17/0.046/ln (100/17) = 72.

Hence, the general ancestors of Basques have come on the north of Spain only 1800 years ago. It corresponds to the period of Roman Empire. Actually, there is no archeological acknowledgement of existence of the advanced civilization in Pyrenees before 500 B.C.

3. Klyosov investigated time of occurrence of the general ancestors at the European Germans [1] on 37 markers. It has allocated two trees in sample where the left part has 873 mutations on 75 gaplotype that corresponds to 148 generations, or 3,700 years up to the general ancestor. The right part of a tree – 337 mutations on 24 gaplotype, that corresponds 4,600 years up to the general ancestor.

We use our formula, where K37=0.09 [1]:

T left = 873/75/0.09/ln (872/75) = 53.

T right =337/24/0.09/ln (337/24) = 59.

Hence, the general ancestors Europeans R1b (Germans) came accordingly 1325 and 1475 years ago. It concerns to period V-VII of centuries when in Europe there passed expansion of francs - the union of the West-German tribes. Completely definitely it is known, that any Germans in Europe up to Romans it was not observed.

4. In work as [8] author participants of Project Rurikid – prospective descendants of Rurik were investigated on 67 markers. The list of surnames: Wilson, Davidsen, Valikhan Dumshebaev, descendant of Edigey, Galbraith, Hoegseth, Patrakka, Zaytsev, Podolsky, Krawczyk, Kubarev, Chartorisky, Golitsyn, Svistunov, Khovansky, Kartsev, Kropotkin, Khilkov, Gagarin, Putyatin, Puzyna, Vadbolsky. Six people represent Europe; fourteen people represent traditional Russia and two persons from the East. It is only 22 persons.

So, on 23 gaplotype (together with gaplotype of Rurik) 303 single-step mutations were revealed, in comparison with settlement base gaplotype.

Let's find time of a life of the general ancestor, we use our formula, where K67=0.105:

T = 303/23/0.105/ln (303/23) = 48.

Hence, the general ancestor of all group of veins is exactly 1,200 years ago, that corresponds to official Genealogy.

Kubarev’s formula can be used for definition of age of the general ancestor in subgroups and on pair’s people.

Let's find time of a life of the general ancestor among Gediminovich’s, using, as base, gaplotype prince Golitsyn and others 3 gaplotype (Chartorisky, Svistunov, Khovansky).
In total 12 single-step mutations on 4 gaplotype are revealed.

T = 12/4/0.105/ln (12/4) = 26.

Thus, the general ancestor Russian Gediminovich veins 650 years ago, namely about 1,350. Gedimin veins in 1275-1341, therefore researched gaplotypes occur from grandsons of legendary Lithuanian Grand Duke and are each other rather close relatives.

Let's define also time of a life of group of descendants Moscow’s and Starodub’s princes, Jury Dolgoruky's descendants (1090-1157). In total were investigated 7 gaplotype (Kartsev, Kropotkin, Khilkov, Gagarin, Putyatin, Puzyna and Vadbolsky). As base gaplotype we shall take, for example, prince Khilkov. In total in a subgroup 54 single-step mutations on 7 gaplotype are revealed.

T = 54/7/0.105/ln (54/7) = 36.

Therefore the general ancestor of a subgroup of veins 900 years ago, i.e. about 1110 that corresponds to the validity.

It is interesting to compare in pairs some participants of research. For example, we shall consider two gaplotype – Krawczyk and Kubarev. The genetic distance makes 7 mutations. Then time of a life of the general ancestor:

T=7/2/0.105/ln (7/2 =26.

So, 650 years or 1350 turn out. In our opinion Krawczyk and Kubarev are descendants of prince Sacred David Fedorovich (?-1321) from senior branch Monomakhich and the Yaroslavl princes – Mstislavoviches.

Let's compare also a pair prince Gagarin and Kubarev. The genetic distance makes 16 mutations.

T = 16/2/0.105/ln (16/2) = 36.

Thus, the general ancestor of Gagarin and Kubarev lived 900 years ago, in 1100. It is logical to assume, that it was Vladimir Monomakh.

Kubarev’s formula yields the surprising results increasing number of Rurikovich, in fact by techniques Klyosov at existence of a genetic distance in 16 mutations the general ancestor could not live 900 years ago, and veins, without taking into account returnable mutations, 1,375 years ago, as K67=0.145:

T = 16/2/0.145 = 55.

Summing up researches of sample 22 gaplotype of Rurikovich [8], it is possible to declare confidently, that all of them are lineal descendants legendary Rurik. Political and organizational conclusions from here follow - official DNA-Genealogy of Rurikovich is forged pseudo by scientists. In fact Genealogists the Russian Nobiliary Assembly at the State Historical Museum use formulas of Klyosov for cutting off of the majority of descendants of Rurik from the right to refer to Rurikovich. They recognize thoroughbred princes only the several people which have received titles still at Romanov’s. Rurikovich they publicly name the others inventors and liars. In any case it is logical to assume, that today in the world there should live thousand Rurikovich, instead of five surnames, approved by Romanov’s.

In conclusion of this unit it would be desirable to check up one fact connected to consequences of a Flood, carried by the author by 1250 up to AD. Using formulas Klyosov and Kubarev, we shall try to define, how many tsars, leaders of tribes and men have gone through a flood and have given rise to new peoples. Date is known – 3,250 years or 130 generations back, number of earthmen of 6.5 billion person, and absolute speed of mutations K188=0.105:

ln (3500000000/X) = 0.105×130, then X ≈ 4000 men.

So Flood of 1250 up to have AD gone through no more than 4000 men. They have kept in themselves genes 20 known nowadays gaplogroup. It is interesting to define quantity of the survived men on everyone gaplogroup. The decision of this and other fascinating problems with the help of our formula we shall continue beyond the framework of the present work.

Our research and the received formulas have proved that inside quickly developing science - DNA-Genealogy the set of secrets and opening are still stored. Therefore we hope, that the scientific community will adequately apprehend our results, will count the disputable moments in the saved up material, will correct appreciable errors and joint efforts will uplift DNA-Genealogy on the deserved place among leaders of a modern science.

2. Glottochronology

We believe, that Klyosov has transferred idea glottochronology – to use the equation kinetic the first order which was known to physicists and chemists, in DNA-Genealogy. Therefore the birthplace, so-called, formulas Klyosov, is glottochronology. It refers to this fact in work [6], page 29.

Above we have already shown the limited opportunities of such formula as it is impossible to solve a problem of uncertainty of number base gaplotype without juggling of results of researches.

It is obvious, that the similar problem exists and in itself glottochronology.

Let's result citation Klyosov [6]:

« But glottochronology Turkic languages – a field unexplored, time parameters are unknown, and to adjust - it is not known to what. Here also there is an adjustment under substantive provisions of a modern linguistic science about Turkic languages. It is not the best in a science a way ».

The basic formula glottochronology is those [6], page 29:

[ln (100/M)]/K = T (8),

Where: M – number of the words kept in 100-words, K – a constant of language dynamics (a constant of speed of loss of words), T – number of millennia after which in 100-words it will be kept M words.

For example, at K = 0.05, half of words in 100-words will be kept after ln (2/0.05) = 13.9 thousand years. Half of words in two 100-words will still coincide after ln (2/0.1) = 6.9 thousand years. But as so in a reality with Hindu-European languages does not occur, and loss of words there occurs much faster without any basis the square root, only empirically, is entered. So receive required result – higher speed of loss of words that is shorter time of disintegration of "nucleus" of language. Instead of 6.9 thousand years have 2.6 thousand years. Therefore the square root - simply adjustment under desirable result, i.e. glottochronology today is a science of reception of any desirable result.

By analogy to DNA-Genealogy we suggest to use formula of Kubarev in glottochronology. Above we have shown efficiency of this formula which does not give chances of falsification of results of researches.

Actually 100-words glottochronology corresponds to the DNA-Test on 100 markers where as markers words act, K is a speed of a mutation (loss) of words, and number of millennia we shall replace with number of generations, where duration of one generation of 25 years.

For glottochronology it is necessary to use following Kubarev’s formula:

n/N/ln(n/N) = kt (9),

Where n – number of different words in 100-words, N – quantity of compared languages, ln – the natural logarithm, k - speed of loss of words in 100-words on generation (K100), t – quantity of generations after division of languages.

This formula it is possible to lead to a standard kind which linguists have got used to use:

n/N/ln (n/N) = KT (10),

Where n – number of different words in 100-words, N – quantity of compared languages, ln – the natural logarithm, K – speed of loss of words in 100-words for the millennium, T – number of millennia for which in 100-words have changed n words.

We shall operate with the formula (9), and the interested scientists always can transfer results to a kind of the formula (10). In the beginning it is necessary to define approximately speed of loss of words in 100-words K100.

For calibration of speed K100 we shall take advantage of the table of work of the Sexton [10]. In this table changes of words in 100-words in relation to Turkic (Turkish) language are compared. The information we shall place below in our Table of divergences of Turkic languages. We shall accept average value quantity of primary words for 92 then we shall take into account a difference between K100 and K92 words in factor 1.087.

Let's calculate K92 under the formula (9) for three pair’s languages as the most authentic pairs, time of a divergence which does not cause the big doubts: Turkish – Uzbek, Turkish – Turkmen and Turkish – Azerbaijan.

K90 (Turkish – Uzbek) = 7/2/ln (7/2)/40) = 0.0698
K92 (Turkish – Turkmen) = 8/2/ln (8/2)/40) = 0.0721
K93 (Turkish – Azerbaijan) = 9/2/ln (9/2)/44) = 0.0680

Let's lead speed to K92 – K92 (Turkish – Uzbek) = 0.0714, K92 (Turkish – Turkmen) = 0.0721, K92 (Turkish – Azerbaijan) = 0.0687.

Average speed K92 = (0.0714+0.0721+0.0687)/3 = 0.0707.

Average speed K92 for the millennium - K92 (1000) = 2.828.

Therefore average speed for millennium K100 (1000) = 3.074K100 (25, generation) = 0.077.

Let's count the specified years of a divergence of pair’s languages from the above mentioned table. Results of calculations with a rounding off of values till hundred years we shall place in the Table of divergences of Turkic languages after specification.

It is interesting to receive date when all languages in 100-words has in pairs gone away, that is, we shall define bible time of falling of the Babel tower:

T = 100/2/ln (100/2)/3.074 = 4.2 or 4200 years ago.

It is possible to calculate time when in 100-words Turkish 50 words have exchanged:

T = 50/2/ln (50/2)/3.074 = 2.5 or 2530 years ago.

This date 2530 – time of half-decay 100-words, practically coincides with man-made date of this moment of 2600 on traditional glottochronology [6].

The offer to use in glottochronology Kubarev’s formula, within the framework of the lead researches, has completely justified our expectations. Wide introduction of the formula will need efforts of many scientists and positive perception of new trends on the part of scientific community glottochronology. We hope for mutually advantageous cooperation with all interested parties.

Grand Prince Valeriy Victorovich Kubarev

04-14.01.2011.

The bibliography:

[1] Klyosov A.A., Substantive provisions of DNA-Genealogy (chromosome Y), speeds of mutations, their calibration and examples of calculations. The bulletin of the Russian Academy of DNA-Genealogy. 2008.1, No. 2, with. 252-348.
http://aklyosov.home.comcast.net
[2] Gimbutas, M. (1964) Bronze Age Cultures in Central and Eastern Europe. Mouton.
[3] Gimbutas, M. (1977) The first wave of Eurasian steppe pastoralists into Copper Age Europe. J. of Indo-European Studies, vol. 5.
[4] Gimbutas, M. (1974) The God and Goddesses of Old Europe. 7000-3500 B. C. L.
[5] Gimbutas, M. (1980) The Kurgan wave No. 2 (c. 3400-3200 B. C.) into Europe and
the following transformation of culture. J. of Indo-European Studies, vol. 8.
[6] Klyosov A.A., the Basic riddle in mutual relations Hindu-Europeans and Turkic language families and attempt of its decision with help DNA-Genealogy: reasons non linguist. The bulletin of the Russian Academy of DNA-Genealogy. The scientific-journalistic edition of the Russian Academy of DNA-Genealogy. January 2010. Volume 3, No.1, p. 2-57.
[7] Kubarev V.V., Vedas of Russ, M., IP Media, Inc. 2009.
[8] Chandler, J.F. Estimating per-locus mutation rates. J. Genetic Genealogy2, 27-33, 2006.
[9] Kubarev V.V., Genealogy and genetics of princes of Russia. The report at XXI International conference on problems of a civilization, Moscow, RosNoU, 25.12.2010.
[10] Sexton M.T., (2001) Glottochronology Turkic languages (preliminary
The analysis), the Science. University. Materials of the Second scientific conference-
Novosibirsk, p. 14-16.

Text of article in format the Word
6213.doc

Appendix 1

All techniques and formulas of Klyosov’s group engaged in DNA-Genealogy, have one appreciable error which transforms all efforts of these remarkable people in shamanism.

The problem will be that formulas should have physical sense - the right and left parts of the formula at an equal-sign should coincide on dimension.

In manipulations Klyosov with formulas this rule is not carried out – eggs are compared to a structure, and in the answer rams turn out.

We do the comparative analysis of formulas Klyosov and Kubarev:

1. Klyosov.

ln (N/A) = KT

N – quantity of the person with mutations, A – quantity of the person without mutations, K – speed mutation / time, T – time.

Dimension of the formula - ln (the person with the mutation / person) = (mutation / time) × time.

It turns out – function of mutation = mutation. Dimension is correct.

Linear model Klyosov:

n/N = KT

n – mutation, N – people with mutations n.

Dimension of the formula – the mutation / person with mutations = (mutation / time) × time

It turns out – the mutation / person with mutations = mutation. Dimension is wrong.

As a result of calculation of time T = n/N/K the number of generation, and number generation, divided on the person with mutations turns out not.

Probably, in this place the generator of transmutations which eats people is included and gives out number of generations.

2. Kubarev.

n/N/ln (n/N) = KT

Designations are higher.

Dimension of the formula - the mutation / person with mutations / ln (the mutation / person with mutations) = (mutation / time) × time

Function of mutation = mutation turns out. Dimension is correct.

n/N/ln (n/N) = ln (B/A) = functions of mutations

When in Kubarev’s formula n/N≤e ln (n/N) = ln (e) = 1, the formula gets a linear kind, however she has physical sense:

n/N/ln (e) = KT

Calculations Klyosov have no physical sense, therefore results are adjusted.

Kubarev’s formula – allows calculating time of the beginning of mutations, in physical and practical senses she is true.

17.01.2011.

Appendix 2

Example of calculation of quantity of men Рюриковичей after Distemper in Russia 450 years ago when Ivan Terrible has destroyed about 3000 reign – men, women and children Rurikovich (have officially suffered about 700 families of Rurikovich).
Let's assume that across all Russia and the world (the Volga region, Poland, Sweden, Europe) remained after reprisals of 500 boys in 250 families of Rurikovich. Each of them became base haplotype for the new anonymous family. We shall consider, how many haplotype of Rurikovich lives today in the world through 18 generations. Calculations have approximate character as we have no exact genealogy of all sorts.

Let's take advantage of the formula of kinetic the first order:

ln (N/A) =KT

ln (N/500) = 0.1×18 = 1.8 N = 3000.

It is in each family of 3000 men on the average 4 persons, including wives. Hence quantity of people in families of Rurikovich today is not less than 12000 people, from them 9000 men.

The Russian Nobiliary Assembly of monarchists of the House of Romanov’s recognizes only several Princes Rurikovich – 5 or 6 person. Where the others have got to 2994 men Rurikovich? The answer is clear – they are among us, and activity of the House of Romanov’s consists in isolation of Rurikovich from the applicability.

Let's look on the schedule character of a curve of increase of number haplotypes of Rurikovich after Ivan Terrible 1550th, depending on quantity of generations. We shall take values 0 (1), 3 (4), 6 (7), 9 (10), 12 (13), 15 (16), 18 (19) - numbers of generations on a horizontal axis, and on a vertical axis number of haplotype in corresponding generation, accordingly – 500, 675, 915, 1230, 1660, 2240, 3000.

Grand Prince Valeriy Victorovich Kubarev Rurikovich

18.01.2011.